Impact of Government’s climate measures risks being overestimated
There are several shortcomings in the source materials for Government climate policy, which risks leading to overestimating the impact of various emissions-reducing measures, and to the Riksdag receiving an inaccurate picture of the need to reduce emissions.
The Swedish National Audit Office has audited whether the work of the Government and government agencies on source materials and evaluations within the climate policy framework has been effective. The overall assessment is that there are several shortcomings.
These shortcomings mainly concern the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency’s overall input for the Government. All in all, these shortcomings lead to a risk of overestimating the effects of climate policy measures, and the future development of emissions and removals of greenhouse gases appearing more certain than it actually is.
The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency’s key assumptions include the premise that a number of conditions for the industrial sector’s climate transition will be in place on time, including access to as much fossil-free electricity as it needs.
“The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency makes a different assessment than, for example, the Swedish Energy Agency regarding the industry’s prospect of transitioning without further climate policy measures, which illustrates just how large the immense uncertainties are,” says Ulrika Gunnarsson Östling, project leader for the audit.
Yet, in its source materials provided to the Government, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency has not clearly described the uncertainties contained in these assumptions. Furthermore, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency presents very few alternative outcomes. All in all, there is a risk of future developments being depicted as more certain than they actually are. These uncertainties are conveyed into the Government’s climate reports and climate action plans. There is thus a risk of the Government underestimating the need for further emissions reductions to reach the climate goal of net zero emissions by 2045.
“Unless the Riksdag and Government are given an accurate presentation of the emission trend, the conditions for making necessary decisions on amended or new initiatives are poor. This narrows the prospects of fulfilling the goals and our international commitments effectively,” says Auditor General Christina Gellerbrant Hagberg.
The audit also reveals that there is no actor examining the Government and agencies’ impact assessments, calculation basis and models for climate reports and climate action plans. Although the Climate Policy Council has a remit to evaluate the evidence and models on which the Government bases its policy, it has not prioritised this task.
Recommendations in brief
The Government is recommended to elaborate on descriptions of significant assumptions and uncertainties in its climate reporting.
The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency is recommended to clearly and cohesively describe significant assumptions and uncertainties, and to present more possible emission outcomes of emissions from sectors in which transition is of key significance for fulfilling the climate goals.
The Climate Policy Council is recommended to perform all elements of the task contained in its instructions in terms of evaluating whether the Government’s policies are compatible with the climate goals, by also evaluating the documentation and models on which the Government bases its policy, and analysing how the climate goals can be achieved cost-effectively.
The climate policy framework
Sweden has undertaken to fulfil the Paris Agreement, with its goal to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius. The climate policy framework, adopted by the Riksdag in 2017, is a tool for this mission. The framework comprises the following:
- Climate goals, consisting of a long-term emissions target of net zero by 2045, intermediate targets by 2030 and 2040 on emissions not included in the EU ETS and intermediate targets for the transport sector by 2030.
- The Climate Act, which sets out that the Government is to annually submit a climate report to the Riksdag, and a climate policy action plan every four years.
- The Climate Policy Council, which is to examine the action plan and evaluate whether the Government’s overall policy is compatible with the climate goals.